Let's Analyze A Mock Draft
Pro Football Network recently posted the results of a 12-team, 15-round, half-PPR mock draft... in this article, we go round-by-round, breaking down the best - and most questionable - picks.
The full results of Pro Football Network’s 12-team, 15-round, half-PPR mock draft can be found HERE: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-fantasy-football-mock-draft-0725/
Round 1
Best Pick: It’s hard to argue against Justin Jefferson at 1.01, though Jonathan Taylor may be the best value at 1.12 *if* the Colts can find a way to get past owner Jim Irsay’s awkward statement from this past weekend.
Biggest Reach: A.J. Brown isn’t a bad pick at 1.11, but since he’d probably still be on the board at 2.02, I would have gone in a different direction here.
Round 2
Best Pick: Lot of contenders here, but we’ll give the nod to Tony Pollard at 2.09 - a great spot for a clear No. 1 back who averages 5.1 YPC for his career. Pollard was RB5 in the second half of the 2022 season.
Biggest Reach: Probably a bit too soon for Patrick Mahomes with the 14th overall selection, but if you’re drafting in the early part of the 2nd round, and you want one of the top 3 guys (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts), you have no choice but to pull the trigger on one with your second pick.
Round 3
Best Pick: Travis Etienne Jr. is slotted in at RB10 on the latest version of Game Time Decision’s Big 101 list, so scooping him up 35 picks in is a win.
Biggest Reach: Drafting Jahmyr Gibbs ahead of any of the four RBs that went after him is a bit of a head scratcher, especially since there’s a good chance he’d still be available when the draft snaked back in the 4th round.
Round 4
Best Pick: Alexander Mattison should not only flirt with 1,000 rushing yards this season, but he’ll get 35-45 catches out of the backfield as well. In half-PPR leagues, his floor is probably around RB16, with top-10 potential.
Biggest Reach: Not really a bad pick in the bunch, to be honest. Jerry Jeudy is a slight reach at 4.10, but not too outrageous.
Round 5
Best Pick: D.J. Moore will be Justin Fields No. 1 target this year, and will be the best primary receiver the Bears have had in quite some time. Moore (who spent last year in Carolina) had 7 games with 11+ fantasy points in 2022, and will look to improve upon that on a Chicago team that should be markedly improved this season.
Biggest Reach: So, Brandon Aiyuk is consistent - only 3 games last season with < 7 fantasy points - but he’s not a guy you want to lean on as your WR2, if you can avoid it. This pick would be fine in the 6th round, but not so much here.
Round 6
Best Pick: Maybe we have a bit too much faith in Baker Mayfield here at Game Time Decision, but we think Chris Godwin’s expected target volume puts him in the WR20 range, so we love this pick here at 6.09.
Biggest Reach: If and when he signs with the Miami Dolphins or the New York Jets, then this is a good spot… otherwise, it’s probably a round too soon for Dalvin Cook. If you’re looking for a late 6th round RB, David Montgomery would be a wise choice here.
Round 7
Best Pick: Diontae Johnson didn’t log a single 100-yard performance last season, but he had eight games in which he finished with 10 targets or more. Kenny Pickett’s evolution as a QB should turn more of those targets into catches in 2023, and we feel Johnson is a good pick here at 7.11.
Biggest Reach: Simply too rich for Treylon Burks here after the addition of DeAndre Hopkins earlier this month. We currently have Burks targeted as a mid-to-late 9th round pick.
Round 8
Best Pick: James Cook will more than likely share carries with newcomer Damien Harris, but a talented back who averaged 5.7 yards per carry last year won’t be completely exempted from the Bills’ rushing attack. Cook is a low-end fantasy RB3, and good value 90 picks in.
Biggest Reach: Zach Charbonnet’s role in the Seattle offense is still TBD after Kenneth Walker III’s stellar rookie campaign, so it’s hard to justify drafting the UCLA product over a player like A.J. Dillon, who racked up six performances with 10+ fantasy points last year despite zero starts.
Round 9
Best Pick: Alvin Kamara is all but certain to miss some time after pleading no contest to a misdemeanor earlier this offseason, leaving Jamaal Williams as the Saints’ RB1 come Week 1. Williams won’t get the volume this season that saw him lead the NFL in rushing TDs last year (17), but a good showing early on will define his role in the New Orleans’ offense, and set him up as a very solid RB3/RB4 for most fantasy teams.
Biggest Reach: If you think that the Colts are going to let Anthony Richardson ride for all 17 games this season, then he’s not bad value at 9.08. His dynamic running ability will likely make up for a lot of the bad decisions he’ll make with his arm, but there are actual, known QB commodities on the board at this slot that we feel more comfortable with.
Round 10
Best Pick: Khalil Herbert may not move you all that much, but as of late July, he is splitting first-team reps with D’Onta Foreman in training camp. No matter how good or bad you think the Bears may be, getting any team’s lead back with your 10th-round pick is a wise use of resources.
Biggest Reach: Jameson Williams is uber-talented… he’s also going to miss the first six games of the 2023 campaign due to violating the NFL’s gambling policy. Instead, give me a guy like Allen Lazard whose chemistry with Aaron Rodgers should pay immediate dividends for the Jets.
Round 11
Best Pick: The run on tight ends begins here, and we’re big fans of Chig Okonkwo - we actually like him better than Dalton Schultz who was taken one round earlier. DeAndre Hopkins should draw some attention away from Okonkwo, who had the fifth-most receiving yards of any TE in the 2nd half of last season.
Biggest Reach: None of these picks are bad per se, but players like D’Onta Foreman and Jeff Wilson, Jr. may wind up being the lead backs on their respective teams in Week 1, so we’d probably go with one of them over Kendre Miller at 11.11.
Round 12
Best Pick: Just as with Khalil Herbert in Round 10, D’Onta Foreman - the other RB getting first-team reps in Chicago - is outstanding value 144 picks into the draft.
Biggest Reach: Rashee Rice over Skyy Moore? We aren’t quite there yet. The early reports out of Kansas City training camp still have Moore as the lead WR in Kadarius Toney’s absence, but it’s definitely a situation worth monitoring.
Round 13
Best Pick: This is the point of the draft where you’re going with handcuffs and lottery tickets, so let’s take a flier on Jeff Wilson Jr., who is having a good camp so far down in South Florida. If Dalvin Cook makes his way to Miami, then the value pick here is Nico Collins, a receiver who could lead the Texans in targets this season.
Biggest Reach: All due respect to Michael Mayer, but there are better TE2 options still available at this spot (namely, Dawson Knox and Gerald Everett).
Round 14
Best Pick: Zay Jones won’t see a repeat of his 2022 stats now that Calvin Ridley is in town (121 targets, 823 yards), but he could still see production in the 55/550/3 range, making him a decent flex play option given the matchup.
Biggest Reach: In defense of Pro Football Network, this draft was conducted before the Niners’ kicked off training camp, so they didn’t have any idea that Trey Lance would be third on the depth chart heading into August. If you put Brock Purdy in this spot instead, it’s not a bad selection, all things considered.
Round 15
Best Pick: J.K. Dobbins is on the PUP list to start training camp, so Gus Edwards is getting the lion’s share of the work with the No. 1 offense. For what it’s worth, Dobbins has never logged more than 17 touches in a game, so even if he is healthy - and if he’s no longer lobbying for a new deal - Edwards is going to get a lot of work this season one way or another.
Biggest Reach: No real reaches at this point in the draft. You can question the pick of Kareem Hunt who hasn’t received much of a buzz on the free agent market, but in Round 15, you’re just throwing darts at the board and hoping you get lucky.