Let's Analyze A Fantasy Draft, 2024 Edition
The crew from Philadelphia's Fox Sports The Gambler recently completed their annual 12-team PPR draft. In this article, we'll review the best - and most questionable - picks of the first 15 rounds.
Round 1
Best Pick: We actually like all of these picks here, but it’s hard to argue against Justin Jefferson - who we think is more or less “quarterback-proof” - as being an exceptional value with the 8th pick.
Biggest Reach: Not a reach necessarily, but you could be critical of taking Puka Nacua 12th overall given the knee injury that plagued him through training camp. However, given his performance last season, we completely understand the reasoning.
Round 2
Best Pick: Saquon Barkley is going 9th overall in typical PPR drafts, so getting him in the 2nd round is a solid pick up. Premier RBs are at a premium this season, so it’s highly advisable that you draft one in the first two rounds, if possible.
Biggest Reach: WRs have outsized values in PPR leagues, but Mike Evans at 2.03 is well above his current 31.8 ADP.
Round 3
Best Pick: If you’re a Josh Jacobs believer, still seeing him on the board at 3.09 is a welcome sight. He’s going as high as 19th in some leagues, and as low as 39th. Projections (per FantasyPros) have him poised for a 1,000-yard / 9 TD season - numbers that more than justify a late 3rd-round pick.
Biggest Reach: Probably a slight reach for Jalen Hurts at 3.01 - FantasyPros currently has him as the 3rd quarterback going off of the board in most drafts with an ADP of 31.4.
Round 4
Best Pick: The Fox Sports The Gambler crew is a little less bullish than the general public on De’Von Achane (ADP 27.2) - if he’s still on the board in the 4th round in your league, you absolutely need to take a flier on him.
Biggest Reach: Even if you’re in the market for a WR, it’s nearly impossible to justify taking Malik Nabers ahead of guys like Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, DeVonta Smith, and Brandon Aiyuk.
Round 5
Best Pick: This is probably a round too late for Lamar Jackson given that he’s fresh off of an MVP campaign where he logged career highs in both passing yards and completion percentage. With defenses needing to key on Derrick Henry, Jackson may be in line for a QB1 finish in 2024.
Biggest Reach: We’re higher on Brian Robinson Jr. than most (his ADP is presently 92.4), but we aren’t THIS keen on him, especially with better backs still on the board.
Round 6
Best Pick: Hard to pick a winner here: Just about every pick is worthy of a 6th-round grade, and no real reaches to speak of. If pressed, we’ll give the nod to the Kyle Pitts selection: In a new-look offense, he could flirt with a 1,000-yard campaign.
Biggest Reach: Picking a defense - even the Jets - at any time before the last couple of rounds is always a mistake, but in this manager’s defense, it was an autopick due to a faulty Internet connection.
Round 7
Best Pick: Raheem Mostert - and his 21 touchdowns last season - is a bit of an enigma heading into his age-32 season. Achane appears to be solidly ahead of him on the Dolphins’ depth chart, but Mostert is literally coming off of the best performance of his life, and doesn’t have many miles on the odometer. We love the pick here at 7.12.
Biggest Reach: We’ll ignore the auto-picked defense this time and focus on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If you *really* like him, then you may not consider taking him at 7.08 as a reach, but he’s WR40 on the consensus fantasy boards, and is lasting until the 9th round in the average PPR league.
Round 8
Best Pick: Christian Kirk is routinely disrespected in the fantasy football world: He had a 21% target share last season (even playing alongside Calvin Ridley), and racked up 57/787/3 in 13 games. He’s an inconsistent TD threat at best, but you could do a lot worse as your WR3.
Biggest Reach: Let’s stay with the Kirk theme for a second: This is extremely too early for Kirk Cousins. I don’t care how bullish you are on the Falcons’ offense: It’s going to be hard for him to finish with a 4,000-yard campaign fresh off of a torn Achilles. In Round 8, there are other proven - and healthier - QB options on the board.
Round 9
Best Pick: We aren’t in love with the RB situation in Tennessee, but Tony Pollard should get the bulk of the work down there, and drafting an RB1 with your 9th round pick typically represents solid value (unless the Titans’ offense ends up being abysmal…)
Biggest Reach: This is easily 3 or 4 rounds too early for Adam Thielen, who is a low-end WR4 at best.
Round 10
Best Pick: Let’s call this one a draw: We’re fans of both the Ford and Edwards picks here in Round 10. Both are currently RB1 in the respective situations, and even though both men have potential heirs to the throne, we have no issues taking guys are are locks to get a bulk of the work, at least through the first month of the season.
Biggest Reach: This is at least 20-30 picks too early for Jakobi Meyers, who has to battle Davante Adams, Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers for targets. Now that said, the Raiders figure to be trailing quite a bit this season, so perhaps this isn’t as big of a gamble as it seems. We still think he would have been on the board in Round 12, however.
Round 11
Best Pick: This is a good spot for Hollywood Brown, seemingly undervalued by The Gambler crew due to his early season injury. The KC offense is a bit of a crap shoot, however, so there’s no telling who will be WR1 by the time we get to season’s end. If Brown is that guy, grabbing him at 11.03 is outright robbery.
Biggest Reach: We’re big believers in Chig Okonkwo, but if we were searching for a TE at this point, we likely would have gone with Dalton Schultz or Taysom Hill.
Round 12
Best Pick: We like a few of the “lottery tickets” taken here, namely Jaylen Wright, Xavier Legette and, most prominently, Khalil Shakir. For what it’s worth, Shakir is the only WR on the Bills’ roster who has caught a pass from Josh Allen in a regular season game, so there’s that.
Biggest Reach: Will Shipley is a decent RB3 (in real life, not in fantasy), but he should not be drafted in any way, shape, or form unless you’re in a massive 16-team league.
Round 13
Best Pick: The Carolina Panthers are awful, but… right now… TODAY… Chuba Hubbard is RB1 in Charlotte. Jonathon Brooks is injured, and Miles Sanders was wildly unproductive in 2023, so if Hubbard can serve as a functional RB3/Flex option, this is great value in Round 13.
Biggest Reach: This is sill far too early to take a kicker, but if you’re going to do so, former soccer player Brandon Aubrey - who led the NFL in points last season in 157 - isn’t a bad option.
Round 14
Best Pick: There are far worse options for your backup quarterback than Trevor Lawrence, who was QB13 in terms of points per game last season. He’ll probably never drop a 400-yard, 4 TD performance on you, but he should check in with a consistent 16-19 points each week.
Biggest Reach: Our advice is to avoid Bryce Young as a fantasy QB until he proves it on the field.
Round 15
Best Pick: We’re bullish on two of the tight ends picked in this round (Hill and Tyler Conklin)… if nothing else, this draft has taught us that you can absolutely wait on the TE position without sacrificing a massive number of points every week.
Biggest Reach: The Elijah Mitchell pick is only bad because of timing: This draft was held before the news came out that Mitchell would be having season-ending hamstring surgery. Slot Jordan Mason into this spot instead, and that pick at 15.03 could end up paying massive dividends down the road.